Oscars 2026: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
Oscars broadcaster George Satsidis analyzes the race ahead of Hollywood’s biggest night, airing live Sunday on ABC and Hulu from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood!
Photo credit: The Walt Disney Company
In Hollywood, awards season is never only about the trophies. It is about momentum, narratives that slowly take shape week after week, and the subtle shifts of taste that move within The Academy. As the 2026 Oscars approach, this year’s race has evolved into one of the most intriguing contests of recent years, with films that move between bold auteur cinema and deeply emotional storytelling.
A handful of films have dominated the conversation throughout the season. Paul Thomas Anderson’s ambitious One Battle After Another, Ryan Coogler’s atmospheric and unpredictable Sinners, the poetic literary adaptation Hamnet, and international productions such as Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Together, they form a cinematic mosaic that reflects where global cinema stands today.
Best Picture
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Who should win: Sinners
Photo credit: Golden Globes
Photo credit: IMDb
Paul Thomas Anderson’s film has built strong momentum throughout the awards season, earning significant predictions and the support of many influential circles within the industry. With the maturity of a filmmaker who has shaped the aesthetics of American cinema for decades, One Battle After Another increasingly feels like the kind of film around which many Academy voters can comfortably rally.
However, if the discussion moves to the level of artistic boldness, the film that stands out is Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler. Blending elements of historical drama, subtle supernatural undertones, and striking visual language, the film became one of the most surprising and exhilarating cinematic experiences of the year. If the Academy chooses to reward risk and originality, then Sinners would be the most daring and memorable choice.
Best Director
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who should win: Ryan Coogler
Paul Thomas Anderson remains one of the most respected filmmakers in contemporary cinema. His direction in One Battle After Another combines his signature narrative precision with a mature, almost philosophical reflection on human nature.
Paul Thomas Anderson (Michael Buckner/Getty Images)
At the same time, Ryan Coogler’s work in Sinners demonstrates how large-scale filmmaking and artistic ambition can coexist. His direction balances spectacle with thematic depth, creating a film that sparked intense discussion across the industry throughout the year.
Ryan Coogler (Julian Hamilton/Getty Images)
Best Actress
Who will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Who should win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Some Oscar races feel almost inevitable. Jessie Buckley delivers an extraordinary performance in Hamnet, filled with emotional vulnerability and quiet intensity. Her work is built not on dramatic outbursts but on subtle emotional shifts and silences that reveal the character’s inner life.
In this case, the likely winner is also the most deserving one.
Best Actor
Who will win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Who should win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan stands at the forefront of predictions thanks to his complex and demanding performance in Sinners. His presence on screen is powerful, layered, and emotionally compelling, the kind of performance that often resonates strongly with Academy voters.
Michael B Jordan (Earl Gibson III/Getty Images)
Yet many critics believe that the most nuanced performance of the year belongs to Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. With an understated and deeply internalized approach to his role, Hawke delivers a performance that may not have the largest campaign behind it but certainly possesses remarkable artistic depth.
Ethan Hawke (Earl Gibson III/Getty Images)
The Supporting Categories
The supporting categories are often where the most interesting surprises appear. Amy Madigan seems to have strong momentum in the Best Supporting Actress race for her distinctive performance in Weapons, while Sean Penn has emerged as a major contender for Best Supporting Actor with his role in One Battle After Another.
Amy Madigan (Getty Images / Gilbert Flores)
Sean Penn (Dominique Charriau/Getty Images)
